In the wake of the 2025 federal election, more and more dissatisfied prairie voters are discussing independence. This comes after 10 years of a Liberal government that the people of Alberta have largely disapproved of, culminating in this election where over 63% of Alberta’s residents voted for the Conservatives rather than the incumbent Liberals. Despite the CPC’s attempts to appease Albertans, such as with Pierre Poilievre running in Battle River-Crowfoot, it seems like nothing can stop this momentum.
With all of this, serious talks of an Alberta independence referendum have begun to creep into the province’s political landscape. For one, a new party called the “Republican Party of Alberta” has formed, which describes itself as being the leading party for independence in Alberta. On top of this, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has made the requirements to hold a referendum easier to achieve over the past few weeks since the election.
With all of this, more and more people are wondering about the prospective Alberta independence referendum: is it possible? Who would support it? And most importantly, is there any chance that it would pass? In this article, I will be trying my best to answer all of these questions.
What Will it Take to Hold an Alberta Independence Referendum?
The short answer to this question is that it really doesn’t take a lot, and that it’s very likely that a referendum will actually be held. For one, Danielle Smith’s UCP government has been filing motions to make it easier to hold a referendum. Assuming that these motions pass, the petition required to trigger a referendum would be significantly less than they are now, and the group organizing the petition would have more time to obtain the necessary signatures.
Given that notable Albertans like Stockwell Day have sympathized with the independence movement, and that even Premier Smith hasn’t exactly opposed it, it’s very plausible that the petition gets enough traction in far less than the 120 days they’re given in order to trigger the referendum.
Smith has already promised to hold the independence referendum in 2026 if signatures are received, so it seems like it’s only a matter of time before the province goes to a vote on this issue.
Who Would Support an Alberta Independence Referendum?
This question is a very fascinating one; in its answers, we find what is perhaps the biggest issue with the Alberta independence movement. Overwhelmingly, if we look at the historical political attitudes of Alberta, a yes vote would need to be carried by Rural Albertans to outweigh the near certainty that both Edmonton and Calgary will vote at least 60% of no. Using the polling numbers that we have, we can estimate this to be true.
A poll released by Angus Reid about the Alberta independence referendum shows that 97% of Alberta NDP voters would vote no in a referendum. In the 2023 Alberta election, every single core-Edmonton riding went for the NDP, with certain ridings like Edmonton Strathcona voting nearly 80% in favour of the party. In Calgary, the UCP saw marginally more support, especially in the south of the city, but the majority of ridings still voted NDP.
The inference we can make from the combination of the Angus Reid poll and the results of the 2023 Alberta election is that Edmonton and Calgary do not want to leave Canada. A yes vote in an Alberta independence referendum would need to be carried on the backs of the most rural parts of the province. Areas like Fort McMurray and Grand Prairie would need to vote so heavily yes that it outweighs the no votes in Urban Alberta.
But is this possible?
Could an Alberta Independence Referendum Really Pass?
Looking at the numbers we have – it’s complicated. As I was saying before, Edmonton and Calgary would almost certainly vote no, meaning that in order for the referendum to pass, everywhere else in the province would need to overwhelmingly vote yes.
Assuming that the no votes in Calgary and Edmonton are only soft no’s (think 55% in Calgary and 60% in Edmonton), then it may be possible for team independence with super strong performances in the Rural core of the province. But if Calgary and Edmonton vote 70% and 80% no respectively, the referendum will be over before it even started.
The polling we have on the Alberta independence referendum tells an interesting story. The previously cited Angus Reid poll suggested that only 36% of Albertans would vote yes, but a new Kolosowski Strategies survey found that this figure was at 45%. Both of these polls find the yes figure to be higher than Angus Reid and Léger surveys from during campaign season, which implies that Carney’s win resulted in heavy inroads being made for team yes.
Still, since 2018, no notable poll has found the yes figure to be much higher than this 45% figure, which suggests that the pro-independence movement may be hard-capped. This makes sense when looking at what would need to be done in Alberta’s big cities to pass the referendum.
What Would a Successful Alberta Independence Referendum Mean for Canada?
If the Alberta independence referendum did pass, it would only be the beginning for the effort to separate from Canada. For one, there is a whole lengthy negotiation process that the province would need to go through with the Government of Canada, the other Provincial Governments, and Indigenous groups with land claims across the province. Before any independence is finalized, these groups would need to all come to agreements.
If an agreement even is made, it will likely come with some serious concessions for Alberta. As was discussed before, Calgary and Edmonton will almost certainly vote no, and the Government of Canada isn’t exactly eager to see either of these cities leave. With this in mind, it seems quite likely that some partition will need to occur for what’s left of Alberta to gain independence. And losing your two biggest cities is never a good start for your brand new country.
In summary, an Alberta independence referendum probably will be held – but it probably won’t pass. And even if it does pass, negotiations probably won’t go smoothly. And even if they do go smoothly, Alberta will probably lose serious land, population, and wealth. It’s an uphill battle, but only time will tell.
edit: as I’m writing this article, EKOS has just released a poll which shows that 32% of Albertans believe their province would be better off as an independent country, the highest of any province. Quebec trails in second at 24%.
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