The 2026 Winter Olympics are taking place from February 4 to 22, and with competition now unfolding, attention is turning from predictions to performance. Team Canada, represented by 207 athletes across 14 sports, enters these Games with strong depth but fewer guaranteed podium finishes than in some past Olympic cycles.
According to the Canadian Olympic Committee, Canada’s strength this year lies less in a handful of dominant superstars and more in a broad field of medal-capable athletes across freestyle skiing, skating, curling, and hockey.
Medal projections: strong, but not dominant
Early forecasts from sports analysts and Olympic observers suggest Canada could finish with a mid-20s medal total, likely in the range of 25 to 30 medals, including roughly 8 to 10 golds. Betting and analytics sites tracking Olympic outcomes have Canada just outside the very top tier of medal counts, trailing traditional Winter Games powerhouses such as Norway and Germany, while competing closely with the United States.
These projections reflect a shift from the Vancouver and Sochi eras, when Canada entered with multiple near-certain gold medal favourites. Instead, Milano Cortina 2026 appears to be a Games where Canadian success will come from consistency and depth, rather than dominance.
Hockey returns to the spotlight
One area where expectations remain high is ice hockey, particularly with the return of NHL players to Olympic competition. Analysts widely consider Canada a top gold-medal contender in men’s hockey, with elite talent expected to anchor the roster.
On the women’s side, Canada remains firmly in medal contention, though recent international results suggest the gap between Canada and the United States has narrowed considerably. Most projections place Canada solidly on the podium, with gold or silver both realistic outcomes depending on matchups and form.
Freestyle skiing and snowboarding: Canada’s best bet
If Canada is to outperform medal forecasts, freestyle skiing is the most likely place it will happen. Long considered a cornerstone of Canada’s Winter Olympic success, events like moguls, ski cross, slopestyle, and aerials continue to offer multiple medal opportunities.
Veteran moguls skier Mikaël Kingsbury enters Milano Cortina as one of Canada’s most reliable medal hopes, carrying a résumé that already includes Olympic hardware and sustained World Cup dominance. In ski cross, Canada again fields a deep roster capable of reaching multiple finals.
Snowboarding also remains a key area to watch, though uncertainty surrounds some events after Mark McMorris suffered a heavy training crash earlier this week. While team officials say he is being monitored and assessed, his availability could affect Canada’s medal outlook in big air and slopestyle.
Speed skating and short track: quiet confidence
Canada’s speed skating and short-track teams arrive with less fanfare than hockey or freestyle skiing, but with a strong chance to quietly add medals to the tally. Athletes such as Ivanie Blondin and Valerie Maltais have already proven they can deliver on the Olympic stage, particularly in team events.
In short track, Canada continues to be one of the most competitive nations in the world. Skaters like William Dandjinou and Félix Roussel are expected to factor into medal races as competition intensifies.
Curling and figure skating: podium potential
Curling remains one of Canada’s most reliable Olympic sports, with both team and mixed doubles events viewed as strong medal opportunities. While the international field has deepened significantly over the past decade, Canada is still widely expected to contend late into each tournament.
In figure skating, Canada’s chances are more uncertain. While the program continues to produce world-class talent, podium finishes will likely depend on clean programs and favourable judging conditions rather than clear dominance.
Early days, shifting expectations
As medals begin to be awarded, projections will quickly give way to results. For Canada, the first week of competition in curling, freestyle skiing, and skating will likely determine whether the country exceeds expectations or lands closer to the middle of projected medal tables.
What is clear so far is that Milano Cortina 2026 is shaping up to be a grind-it-out Olympics for Team Canada — one where success will come from depth, resilience, and timely performances rather than runaway victories.
NCR Now will continue to publish daily updates tracking Canadian performances, medal results, and emerging contenders throughout the Games.
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