s.yume from Calgary, Canada, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons
With the preliminary round of the men’s Olympic hockey tournament set to start in just three days, now seems as good a time as any to settle down, look at the teams competing, and rank them from worst to the best. Perhaps I will be proven wrong when France comes out of the gate as the world’s newest hockey superpower, or perhaps I will here establish myself as the world’s greatest hockey mind. Without further ado, let’s get into the rankings
12: Italy
No disrespect to Italy, who are not completely a tier below a slightly better nation like France, but they qualified on the basis of being the Olympics’ host nation. I don’t think I’d have chosen them to qualify over countries like Austria, Kazakhstan, or Norway, but in the grand scheme of Olympic hockey, they’re just a notch behind these countries at #20 on the world rankings. Only time will tell, but I can’t imagine that they pick up a singular point in their group.
11: France
Lucking out in qualification due to Russia’s ban from the 2026 Olympics as well as a little bit of bracket chaos, France will feel most fulfilled at this tournament if they just take a “happy to be here” approach to it all. Considering that they are in a group with three countries that are currently top 5 in the IIHF World Rankings, I’d be impressed if France was able to keep a singular game within three goals.
10: Denmark
To be completely transparent, this placement and the next three (so spots 10-7) are pretty interchangeable to me. And to be fair to Denmark, two of the other countries in this tier are in the same group as Denmark, meaning that a potential second place group stage finish (and subsequent potential quarterfinals bye) is more than achievable.
Though Denmark is towards the bottom of the tournament when it comes to NHL talent, you’d be a fool to completely count out Frederik Andersen and Nikolaj Ehlers on an international stage.
9: Slovakia
By the narrowest of margins, I’ve decided to put Slovakia at 9th instead of 8th, something I’ll discuss a little more when we get to 8th. For now, let’s talk about the good with Slovakia. In the qualification stage, they ran their way through Austria, Kazakhstan, and Hungary, never once faltering. On top of this, the country has a very solid D-core of players who are proven at an NHL level.
Still, a lack of depth compared to the teams above them on this list will keep Slovakia out of the top 8 on this list, and an unfortunate group draw with Sweden and Finland probably means that Slovakia’s dreams to get a bye into the quarterfinals will be crushed.
8: Latvia
When it comes to having NHL talent, Latvia is actually probably 10th on this list. Still, despite this, I have to respect the Baltic country for their Cinderella run at the 2023 IIHF World Championship, where they miraculously won the Bronze medal, defeating teams like Sweden and the USA to get there.
It’s mainly for this reason that I’m putting Latvia over Slovakia and Denmark. On paper, they have worse talent. In reality, though, including at the qualification round for the Olympic hockey games, Latvia has looked rock-solid. If they can pull off a huge win vs #7 on this list, they might even be able to get a bye into the quarterfinals.
7: Germany
Germany’s the final team on this list in the tier that I’d call “good enough to make top 8, probably not good enough to medal.” Still, I suppose when you have Leon Draisaitl and Tim Stutzle on your side, anything is possible.
Achieving 2nd place at the 2023 IIHF World Championship, Germany is now going to have a whole different level of competition at the Olympics, where they won’t have the privilege of going against the top nations’ B-teams. With Draisaitl looking as good as he ever has, we’ll soon see how far the heroics of one man can go.
6: Switzerland
The Swiss looked phenomenal at the 2023 World Championship, but this is another case of a country that did well against the top countries’ backups, that simply does not have the depth to compete with the superstars of these nations. Sure, when Canada’s best player is a pre-breakout Sam Montembault, Switzerland can look competitive with them. But when you’re facing all-stars on the top nations’ 4th lines, its a different story.
With this said, there’s only one team that will come between Switzerland and a top 2 spot in their group. That team is…
5: Czechia
Yep. While Canada more or less has Group A locked, I’m fully expecting a classic match-up between Switzerland and Czechia to determine who takes the group’s second place spot and a potential bye into the quarterfinals.
Going in Czechia’s favour is that outside of the established top four, they’re the closest nation to truly having a full lineup of true NHL players. And while this is largely a roster of role players outside of David Pastrnak, NHL role players are certainly quite a few tiers above overseas stars.
4: Finland
Here we are: the coveted top four; the four countries that made up last year’s cinematic 4 Nations Face-Off. And in 4th, I’m putting Finland.
I want to preface all of this by saying that ranking these top four is an incredibly difficult task – pulling teeth in the truest sense of the metaphor. This is largely because we simply do not have a large enough sample size of international hockey to even begin to differentiate these teams. So with this in mind, we can look at the 4 Nations Face-Off, and we can look at the strength of players on these rosters.
With the former in mind, this is an easy 4th place pick. At 4 Nations, Finland only picked up one win (in OT) vs Sweden, and lost to Canada and the USA with a combined goal differential of 11-4.
Discussing the latter, it’s a little harder when Finland has stars like Aho and Rantanen, but I’d still keep them firmly out of the top two. Don’t get it twisted, though. Any team in the top four could easily win Gold.
3: Sweden
While Sweden’s top end talent may actually be a notch below Finland, I think I’m still gonna bet on them to get it done based on their depth and what we saw at 4 Nations. In those games, Sweden never looked too dominant, but, unlike Finland, they also didn’t look out of their element against Canada and the USA. This, of course, is also consistent with the characterization that they’re a team relying more on depth than starpower.
Again, I’m trying really hard to find meaning in a sample of two games, but when we’re making these close decisions, everything matters. Either way, we’ll know soon enough which Nordic nation is better when they face each other in the group stage.
2: The USA
Sorry Americans, elbows up!
But man, oh man, do the Americans have a deep squad. When you have guys like Lane Hutson and Matthew Knies not making the Olympic roster, you know it’s a little insane. If I had to play the Devil’s advocate and give America one X-factor over Canada, it’s easily consistent goaltending. Whether they go with Hellebuyck or Oettinger, America is going to have an elite keeper between the posts.
At this tier, obviously any team could win, and the USA is certainly no exception, but I’m simply not going to bet against the passion and starpower of the #1 team…
1: Canada
Oh, Canada… Binnington? Kuemper? Thompson? It seems like, once again, Canada’s netminder will be the man who wins or loses the tournament for them.
Still, there’s just so much talent here. McDavid. Makar. MacKinnon. Crosby. A young, elite Macklin Celibrini. And most of all, the hunger to win after not medalling in 2022; the hunger that was seen in the 4 Nations final. I am entirely, absolutely, 100% a homer, but I am not betting against this Canada squad. Time will tell, but until then, I’ll be chanting ‘CANADA!’
Thanks all for reading, and happy Olympics!
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