Following the Canada Investment Summit on Tuesday, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that the federal government plans to seek private investment through long-term concessions to operate Canada’s four largest airports: Toronto Pearson, Montreal-Trudeau, Vancouver, and Calgary.
My understanding is the government would keep ownership of the underlying land and assets, while private investors would operate the airports under long-term agreements. Carney argues this “asset recycling” could raise tens of billions of dollars to reinvest in underfunded regional airports, national transportation, and broadband infrastructure, particularly in the Arctic.
I understand the basic appeal of building new infrastructure without raising taxes. But before we hand over decades of operating rights to our most critical transportation hubs, Canadians deserve answers.
The Asset Recycling Trade-Off
If these airports are worth tens of billions to investors, why aren’t they worth keeping? Private investors will only hand the government billions of dollars today if they expect to earn even more money tomorrow.
Carney pointed to Canadian pension funds and their success investing in airports abroad. Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan (OTPP), for example, recently sold its portfolio of five European airports, returning about $8 billion in capital to the pension fund. That is fantastic for Ontario teachers. If Canadian pension funds can make excellent money investing in foreign airports, why does it make sense for Canada to be on the selling end of that same transaction?
Furthermore, where do these investor returns come from? While private operators might improve retail operations or develop airport lands, a significant portion of airport revenue comes from landing fees, airport charges, parking, and rents. What protections will exist to prevent operators from simply extracting more money from Canadian travellers and businesses?
Lessons from History: We’ve Been Here Before
Canada’s history with privatization should make us cautious about signing away future value.
- CN Rail: Privatized in 1995, the government received $2.2 billion from the initial public offering. By 2020, CN had grown into an extraordinarily successful company with a market capitalization of roughly $100 billion. While shareholders prospered, Canadians lost the public ownership stake of an asset with enormous future potential. CN grew significantly after privatization, including through major acquisitions, so those numbers aren’t directly comparable. Still, its enormous subsequent value raises a reasonable question about the future value Canadians surrendered when they gave up ownership.
- Highway 407: In 1999, Ontario granted a 99-year concession for Highway 407 in exchange for $3.1 billion. Within just three years, an investor valuation estimated the highway’s value had nearly doubled due to traffic growth and corridor development.
Nobody knows exactly what these airports will be worth in 2050 or 2075. Long-term concessions don’t eliminate future uncertainty; but they do transfer any future upside to private investors in exchange for a one-time payout today.
Sovereignty and The Canada Strong Fund
Carney has consistently championed Canadian sovereignty and independence, warning that economic integration and infrastructure can be used as leverage by foreign actors.
To his credit, Carney clarified two important safeguards during the press conference:
- Regulatory Control: Carney says regulatory oversight and security standards will remain in public hands and will be written into the concession agreements.
- Public Equity: The government intends to retain an ownership position in these concessions through a new “Canada Strong Fund,” allowing Canadians to benefit directly as the airports’ values improve.
These are vital protections. However, Carney has also explicitly welcomed American and global capital. While the Investment Canada Act gives the federal government broad powers to review foreign investments on national security grounds, approval today cannot guarantee what the geopolitical landscape will look like decades from now. A company or investment fund considered an acceptable partner today may be based in a country with which Canada has a very different relationship 30, 50 or 75 years from now. Carney himself has repeatedly warned how quickly economic relationships and alliances can change.
Furthermore, sovereignty is about far more than who checks your bags at the gate. Modern airports are massive digital and logistical hubs. Their operators manage critical computer systems, collect significant operational and passenger-flow data, and make important decisions about infrastructure, expansion and commercial development. What remains unclear is how much authority a private concessionaire would have over those decisions, and how much power Ottawa would retain to override them when Canada’s interests require it.
If an operator decides a major cargo expansion or other infrastructure investment does not provide an adequate return, can the federal government require it anyway? If a national emergency requires Ottawa to immediately redirect airport capacity or secure critical supply lines, does Canada retain an unquestioned right to take control? And if the operator is foreign-owned, what happens if Canada’s relationship with that country changes dramatically during the life of the concession?
Show Me the Math
Without really defining it, Carney believes this time is different, citing a dangerous global environment and the need for fiscal discipline while building the country.
Maybe he is right. But the simplest way to convince us is to show us the math.
Tell us what government economists believe these concessions are worth over their full term. Tell us what percentage of equity the Canada Strong Fund will retain. Tell us what liability the private operators are taking on, and what economic value the newly funded infrastructure is expected to create.
Before we “unlock” the value of our airports, Canadians need to know exactly what we are trading away—and whether we will look back 30 years from now wondering why we gave so much of its future value away.
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