5 Things We've Learned From the 2026 Ottawa Election

Ottawa’s City Elections have come and gone, and with them, a lot of information has revealed itself to election nerds. In this article, I’ll be discussing 10 things that we can take away from the results of the city’s election (and what they mean for the future).

1. Ottawa’s Political Establishment Remains the Same

Mark Sutcliffe has won re-election and 21 of the 24 Councillors from prior to the election won re-election or were acclaimed in 2026. Of the three Wards populated by new Councillors, only one of them (Kanata South) saw an incumbent defeated. This incumbent was Allen Hubley, who lost to Councillor-elect Erin Coffin. This means that 21/22 Councillors seeking re-election retained their seat.

This likely means that Sutcliffe will have no trouble getting his agendas passed, which he was often able to do in 2022’s Council session. Jeff Leiper was replaced by Joanne Chianello, who is expected to be a member of the anti-Sutcliffe bloc. Chelsea Walton is ostensibly against Lansdowne 2.0 and Erin Coffin was running as the opposition to Hubley’s establishment tendencies, so it is possible that Sutcliffe loses some votes in some circumstances, but he will still largely have the political capital to get his agenda through.

Using Lansdowne 2.0 as a benchmark, even assuming Coffin, Walton, and Chianello would have voted against it, the motion would still have ultimately passed 13-12. Sutcliffe still has 13 votes that vote with him over 75% of the time, and will be able to rely on moderates like Coffin, Carr, Brockington, and Plante to provide him the votes he needs on occasion as well.

2. City Residents are as Apathetic as Ever

Per data available on Wikipedia, the 36.21% of Ottawans who voted in this election is a 7.58% decrease from 2022 and the lowest voter turnout in a municipal election since 2003. Compared to Toronto, where roughly 45% of eligible residents voted, Ottawa’s 36% is discouragingly low.

3. Progressive Ottawans Need to Unify

In the Mayoral race, Jeff Leiper and Neil Saravanamuttoo had more combined votes than Mayor Sutcliffe did. This is to say that these two progressive candidates were a larger electoral force than Sutcliffe was.

In Ward 1, the first two runners-up were both more progressive options than incumbent Luloff, and had more combined votes than Luloff had. And in other wards, such as Rideau-Vanier, long-shot candidates served only to ensure that progressive challengers like Lyra Evans would not get in. In Kanata South, residents rallied around Erin Coffin, and she was able to handily defeat Allen Hubley.

If this city wants to see less developer-influence in the future, we need to do a better job at voting out those who are controlled by developers.

4. Cracks are Beginning to Show

With the previous points said, it is worth noting that several of Sutcliffe’s establishment are not as popular as they were 4 years ago. Hubley did get unseated, after all, and several other Councillors received significantly less vote-share than they did four years ago.

Matt Luloff received 74% of the vote in 2022 and just 36% this time around. Likewise, Tim Tierney went from 82% to 63%, fending off a serious challenge from Cathryne Milburn. Depending on how this next Council term is received, it is very plausible that several of these names will be gone in 2030.

5. Urban Ottawa is the City’s Hub of Apathy

It will be hard for Urban voters with different needs to unify when they don’t show up to vote. Certain Urban wards saw decent enough turnout, but the two Urban Rideau wards (12 and 13) hovered around 30% turnout. In Rideau-Vanier specifically, there was a relatively contentious Council race, and turnout ended up being the second lowest of any ward at 28.6%.

Shawn Menard and Sean Devine deserve some credit for increased turnouts in their wards, but a lot of Urban Ottawa failed to hit 35% turnout. It’s also worth mentioning that there was lower turnout in Rural wards such as Osgoode (31.3%). It’s become clear that communities like Orleans (with its two Suburban wards at ~40%) and Kanata (high 30s) turn out the most, which is typically a losing recipe for progressive mayoral candidates. If Urban Ottawans want their needs met, they’ll need to make their voices heard in 2030.