The best thing about owning my own web-news publication is that I can write whatever I want, whenever I want.
With that said, today, on this website which is dedicated to news in the Ottawa region, I will be putting every nation in the 2026 World Cup into a tier list – simply because I can!
Before I get started, I want to disclaim two things about this list: first, one country being in a tier above another country does not automatically mean that I think that the other country is better. Especially in the early tiers, a lot of the placements are based on group strength. A team that is the worst in a strong group may be a tier below a team that is 3rd in a weak group, despite the former being a better team. Ultimately, this is a tier list of performance expectations, not raw skill.
Secondly, the tiers are ordered. The closer to the top a nation appears in each tier, the lower they are in my overall ranking. I will put numbers next to the countries to simplify this, but remember the first disclaimer. If there’s a tier break between 35 and 34, I may believe that 35 is the stronger nation that was unfortunately placed in a stronger group.
With that out of the way, here is a 2026 World Cup Nations tier list!
Tier 6: The Outsiders
This is the tier all about finishing dead last in your group. If I think a country is the overwhelming most likely candidate to finish dead last in their group, I’ve placed them in this tier.
48. Curaçao – I really don’t want to take anything away from Curaçao, one of the coolest sports Cinderella runs in recent memory, but there is just no chance for them. If the skill gap from CONCACAF to the World Cup wasn’t big enough on its own, they’ve also been placed in a group with three excellent nations: Germany, Ecuador, and Côte d’Ivoire.
47. Qatar – If Qatar and Curaçao swapped groups, I could be talked into putting Qatar dead last. But Qatar’s group B pales in comparison to Curaçao’s group E. I can see a world where Qatar shocks Bosnia or Canada, so they’re a little higher.
46. Iraq – In a weaker group, Iraq may be favoured to get a few points. Group I is ridiculous, though, and Iraq will have a hard time even getting a singular point vs the likes of France, Senegal, and Norway. This side has showed some promise under Graham Arnold over the past few years, and it’s just a shame that they’ll likely have no World Cup points to show for it.
45. New Zealand – I just can’t imagine this side getting anything done in their group. If Chris Wood has a masterclass against Egypt or Iran, they may be able to steal a point or two, but they will still almost certainly finish 4th.
44. Jordan – This is another case of a nation that’s solid on paper but plagued with a strong group. I could see Jordan advancing in other groups, but they’re the heavy underdogs vs every other nation in their group (Algeria, Argentina, Austria). Regardless, Musa Al-Taamari has looked amazing for club and country, and I’m happy he’ll get to showcase his talent at the biggest stage.
43. Cabo Verde – Above the likes of New Zealand, this may seem a little high. Still, I’m pretty high on this side. A strong defensive unit on paper, I wouldn’t be overwhelmed with shock if Cabo Verde beat Saudi Arabia to secure 3rd in their group.
42. Haiti – These last few spots in this tier could conceivably make 3rd place in their groups, but I still think that it’s a pipe dream. In Haiti’s case, it would probably require a win vs Scotland. If they had commitment from all of their diaspora names, I wouldn’t hate the possibility, but for now, Haiti are a firm 4th in group C.
41. Panama – A similar group situation to Haiti, Panama is simply not touching the top two in England and Croatia. A win vs Ghana is possible, and it certainly wouldn’t be jaw-dropping based on Ghana’s current form, but I still think Panama are a notch below. Regardless, they’re serial overachievers and I do feel a little bad about not buying into the hype anymore than I do.
40. South Africa – This may be the hottest take of this tier given that South Africa’s group A (comprised of Mexico, South Korea, and Czechia) is seen as wide open. I just can’t buy into this team though. They have no true top 5 league names outside of Lyle Foster, and I just don’t think there’s anything impressive about their recent form.
39. Tunisia – In terms of raw ability, Tunisia would be a few spots higher than this for me. Unfortunately, they drew a group consisting of the Netherlands, Japan, and Sweden. I can see them perhaps drawing Sweden, but that’s as far as it goes. Between Hannibal, Ben Farhat, Tounekti, and a few others, this side should be good for a while. But for now, they’re probably not going to make it out of their group.
Tier 5: Let’s Try to Make it Out of the Group Stage
This tier is a mix of proven nations in groups of death and unproven nations that show promise. On the latter, fans of a lot of nations, such as my own CANMNT, have already decided that advancing from the group stage is a given. Canada has not yet won a game in World Cup history – let’s relax.
38. Uzbekistan – Depending on the group they drew, Uzbekistan absolutely could’ve been in the last tier. Given how hot they’ve been, though, I’m happy to include them here. The biggest obstacle in Uzbekistan’s way is an equally hopeful DR Congo side. If I had to choose, I’d pick DR Congo, but this match can truly go either way.
37. Saudi Arabia – At their worst, the Saudis are getting knocked out by Jordan at the Arab Cup. At their best, they’re beating Argentina. Where does this leave us? Well, the KSA will probably be on the outside looking in. Assuming they lose to Spain and Uruguay in their group, they’ll need a win vs Cabo Verde to advance. Even then, they’ll probably need favourable goal differential. It’s tough, but possible.
36. Bosnia and Herzegovina – Fresh off a huge upset vs Italy, Bosnia looks to make it out of the group stage for the first time in their nation’s history. In a relatively weak group B, beating Qatar and playing the other two teams close should be enough to do it. If Edin Džeko really comes into this “last dance” in good form, Bosnia could be a Cinderella story.
35. Czechia – In a group with South Korea, Mexico, and South Africa, I think that Czechia could genuinely finish in any of the four group spots. Only time will tell, but this side is probably going to do just enough to make it to the round of 32 and promptly get handled by a stronger nation.
34. DR Congo – This side is sort of all over the place. While they have a few really strong players, the depth has not quite been there. They played Senegal really well in their CAF qualification group, and then needed extra time to put away a far weaker Jamaica side in the inter-confederation playoffs. They’ll probably finish third in their group, but I could see Uzbekistan upsetting them.
33. Ghana – The Ghanaian FA has rightfully gotten a lot of criticism for how they’ve allowed the team to continuously slide since their Golden Generation of the early 2010s, and they’ve been in abysmal form of late, but I’m still falling for the upside. I may look ridiculous when Panama renders them 0-0-3 in the group stage, but I’m still going to blindly trust that all of Ghana’s incredible pieces will click at some point.
32. Scotland – In a few other groups, this Scotland team (which I am particularly high on) would rank higher. In their group C, though, I can’t imagine they’re getting charity points from Brazil or Morocco. Scotland should still end up beating Haiti, though, and I think they have all the talent to put up a surprise Round of 16 performance – especially with this late-career breakout from McTominay.
31. Paraguay – I don’t want to diminish the accomplishments of this Paraguay team, but they kind of just scream mediocre to me. Over the past year, they’ve had some great results (like a win over Argentina in qualifications) and some not-so-good results. In the evenly matched group D, Paraguay may finish 1st, or they may finish 4th. Either way, their absolute ceiling is probably the Round of 16.
30. Canada – As much as my biased self thinks that Copa America 2024 was a sign that Canada’s about to do great things, the truth is that it’s been ugly since then. Riddled with injury and unable to win friendlies against sides like Iceland, Canada is going to need to figure things out fast if they want to go any further than the Round of 32.
29. Egypt – I am incredibly high on this Egypt side, and I’m certainly pulling for Mo Salah to put up a generational performance, but the nation definitely has their work cut out for them. To qualify, they’ll need to beat New Zealand and steal a point from either Belgium or Iran. It’s definitely likely, but it’s far from a done deal.
28. Australia – The Socceroos are not really stacked with top flight names. In spite of this, they’ve looked better than they should in recent international windows. In group D, they’ll need to pick up a win vs the USA, Türkiye, or Paraguay to advance. It won’t be easy, but I’d bet that it’s a likely outcome.
27. Sweden – This side is very hard to judge. On one hand, they had an abysmal UEFA World Cup Qualification run before salvaging things at the last minute. On the other hand, they *did* salvage things at the last minute, and they’re led by huge names like Alexander Isak and Victor Gyökeres. Ultimately, a likely third-place finish behind the Netherlands and Japan would mean a brutal Round of 32 draw. That alone keeps Sweden just short of the next tier.
Tier 4: Round of 16 Hopefuls
In this tier, we find the nations that would be disappointed by anything short of an appearance in the Round of 16. Be it due to these nations being in the peak of a Golden Generation, a string of disappointing World Cups, delusional fans, or any combo of these factors, all of these sides will go home sad if they fail before making the final 16.
26. Algeria – On paper, this is certainly one of the weaker sides in this tier. Still, they’re put here for the fact that they’ve been hyped as being a Golden Generation for a while now, and this World Cup feels like the culmination of that. They should finish 2nd or 3rd in their group, and would probably feel like they under-performed if they don’t win the first KO matchup after that. As a side-note, I’m buying stock right now that Anis Hadj Moussa will have a breakout World Cup.
25. South Korea – This nation is in the same group as Czechia, and they’re in a similar situation too – which is to say that they could conceivably finish 1st or 4th in the group. Korea places in this tier for two reasons: one, they’re still considerably better than Czechia on paper. And two, many members of the nation’s core will have almost certainly declined by 2030. If there’s a time for Korea to make a deep run, it’s now.
24. Iran – If you look at the transfer values of players from Iran, you may be underwhelmed. That’s because these guys historically stay in lesser-known leagues. Don’t let this fool you, Iran is a gelling football nation that rolled through AFC qualifiers with ease and are fully capable of making the Round of 16. It would be ashamed if FIFA’s darling Donald Trump prevented Iran from attending this World Cup.
23. Austria – This is the prototypical middle-of-the-pack European nation. They have one world-class player in Konrad Laimer (even that is debatable), but they’re stacked with tens of proven players in the top flight of Europe. They’re probably the second favourites in their group behind Argentina, and I’d imagine they’d be disappointed to not make it at least past the Round of 32.
22. Mexico – At any point in time, it’s impossible to tell if Mexico is overrated or underrated. A nation that has all the building-blocks to be a football powerhouse, Mexico could easily finish first or last in their group (just like every team from this group). Off of an embarrassing group stage exit in 2022 after seven straight R16 exits, Mexico will look to rebound to their usual R16 spot at this World Cup.
21. USA – Over the past few months, American sports media has successfully gaslit domestic fans into thinking that the USA will make a deep run at this World Cup off the back of Christian Pulisic, a man they’ve hyped up to be a top 5 forward in the world. And while this is a little rich for my taste, I can absolutely see the USA making their deepest run of the past 20 years. If they don’t at minimum match their 2022 result, the nation will need to have serious conversations about their future.
Tier 3: Dark Horses
In this tier, there are a handful of countries that are not traditionally considered to be football powerhouses. Despite this, these nations are ones that are strong enough to make deep runs. For any country in this tier, I would not be surprised if, in 4 months, we look at the as having had a run similar to that of 2002 South Korea or 2022 Morocco.
20. Ecuador – Indeed, Ecuador is perhaps as strong as it ever has been in world football. Between the 100 million Euro man in Moisés Caicedo, the world-class back-line duo of Willian Pacho and Piero Hincapié, and the rest of their defensive depth, Ecuador’s talent pool right now is insane. Conversely, this team is going to need to find someone who can score against elite back-lines if they really want to make it far in this tournament. In current form, none of their strikers are that.
19. Côte d’Ivoire – Compared to general perception, Ivory Coast is probably the nation that I’m highest on. They have a ton of attacking depth, have had some big wins against teams like South Korea, and they did not concede a singular goal during CAF qualification. I may be proven wrong very soon, but my having them one spot ahead of their group E opponents Ecuador means that I think Ivory Coast will finish second in the group.
18. Colombia – This team is very hard to judge. While they’ve consistently been ranked a top 15 nation since 2013, Colombia has very little to show for it. In 2022, they didn’t even qualify, and in general, there recent results have been very underwhelming. Regardless, Colombia’s showing at the 2024 Copa América and their strong talent pool is enough to keep them in my top 20.
17. Switzerland – I don’t necessarily think Switzerland is overwhelmingly stronger than the countries in the spots directly below them, but their position in the weak group B likely means that they’ll have a much easier path to a potential quarterfinals berth than any of those countries. Though they’re not quite as strong as they were in the mid-2010s, the class of Switzerland is permanent.
16. Norway – This is probably a gross overestimation of a Norway side that already gets a ton of hype, but I truly think there is something incredibly special here. From the incredible attacking depth (led of course by a global top 3 player in Haaland), to the form that this team has been in recently, to players like Patrick Berg who have just broken out in a legendary Bodø/Glimt campaign, this Norway team just feels like something special is incoming.
15 Türkiye – Another team I may have a little higher than consensus, Türkiye has looked phenomenal recently. Perhaps the biggest indictment on them was only beating Kosovo 1-0 to qualify for this World Cup, but they looked great during the first round of qualification, and have a group of young superstars looking to prove themselves on the international stage. For those not keeping track, this placement means I have Türkiye topping group D ahead of the USA, Paraguay, and Australia.
14. Senegal – Fresh off of their AFCON win (yes, win.), Senegal looks to carry momentum into the 2026 World Cup. In a group with France and Norway, points won’t be easy to come by. Still, between their AFCON & CAF qualifying performances, and the talent pool of in-form stars like Pape Gueye, I’m betting on Senegal to be the best sub-Saharan African nation at this World Cup.
13. Japan – A nation that has bounced between group stage and R16 exits since their first World Cup appearance in 1998, Japan now has the opportunity to go farther than ever. A testament to their ridiculous recent form, Japan’s last 5 games have seen them go 5-0-0, defeating Brazil, Ghana, Bolivia, Scotland, and England. Only time will tell, but this team can very well go farther than any Japanese team before them.
12. Belgium – After 2018, the Belgian Golden Generation seemed destined to eventually hoist the World Cup. In 2026, that generation seems like it’s seen its best days. While the new core of guys like Onana is nothing to scoff at, it pales in comparison to what KDB and Lukaku could’ve been. Belgium dropped too many points in qualification and got grouped in their most recent Nations League. It doesn’t matter that they went lossless in qualification – they don’t get brownie points for drawing Kazakhstan and destroying Lichtenstein. This seems harsh for a twelfth-place nation, but Belgium should be in the top ten, and they simply are not.
11. Uruguay – The last of our teams outside the top ten, Uruguay should not be counted out to make a major run. While they’re not at the heights that they were at during the days of prime Suarez, I still think that Uruguay is CONMEBOL’s third best side. They have not looked great recently, and it doesn’t help that they don’t have a goalkeeper to match their outfield, but Uruguay can still absolutely make a deep run.
Tier 2: Countries That Should Think They Can Win it All
This tier is complete with teams that are just barely on the outside looking in. While I think that every nation in this tier is a clear notch below tier 1, they all have the talent on paper to beat any team in the world while clicking.
10. Croatia – Ever the serial overperformers, Croatia cannot be considered a dark horse anymore – they’re just a regular horse. While this side lucked out with a weak group in qualification, they did everything they were supposed to. And while guys like Modrić and Brozović aren’t quite at the levels that they were at in previous runs, the new generation led by Gvardiol and Vuskovic looks to prove that Croatia is a true footballing nation rather than a waning Golden Generation. Don’t be surprised if they top their group over England.
9. Morocco – Though they just fell short in AFCON (yes.), Morocco still looks as strong as ever. Just recently they’ve reached their all-time highest FIFA ranking at #8. If Ezzalzouli can run the left wing even half as well as Hakimi and Diaz run the right wing, Morocco’s spot in the final 8 will be a done deal.
8. Netherlands – To be completely fair, the Netherlands has faced a lot of the same recent under-performing that Belgium has. In the Netherlands’ defense, though, they at least have a few recent strong European performances. On top of this, I just think the Dutch have a stronger talent pool. With a recently emerging group of mid-20s world-class players to play alongside the generation of old, the Netherlands are ranked 7th in the world right now for a reason.
7. Germany – As much as I believe in this team more than a lot of others do, it’s hard to put them any higher than this. They looked really solid in Euro 2024 and Nations League 2025, but they still got handled by Spain, France, and Portugal in these competitions. This is where Germany is: one firm notch below the true favourites. Still, we’re one great result away from realizing that Wirtz and Musiala are indeed best-in-the-world type talents.
6. Brazil – At a certain point, you just have to accept that “Brazil the pool of players” and “Brazil the national team” are two fundamentally different things. Individually, Brazil’s current roster is pure class. As a team, though, they have nothing to show for it. Quarterfinals losses to Uruguay and Croatia in Copa ’24 and the 2022 World Cup respectively are just not acceptable for a talent pool of this level. Combining this with their embarrassing WC26 qualification (losing to sides like Paraguay and Bolivia), and Vini’s inability to do anything for country, and I just can’t put Brazil in the top tier.
Tier 1: The Favourites
5. England – Perhaps as strong as they’ve been on paper since the days of the mid-2000s, England is a tricky team to rank. A 2024 Euro final appearance and a World Cup qualification group stage that saw the Three Lions go 8-0-0 without conceding a goal means it’s impossible to rank them low. Historical precedent means it’s hard to rank them as the true favourites. With their current core, though, England has as good a chance as any other time in the 21st century to win it all.
4. Argentina – In Messi’s last dance, Argentina will try to be the first nation since Brazil in the 1950s to repeat as World Cup winners. And while it’s something I wouldn’t mind seeing, I do think that the incoming generation of Argentina is a little worse than the outgoing one, not in any small part due to the greatest footballer of all time aging out of his prime. While Argentina’s current front-line is world-class, I don’t know if I can say the same about their midfield or back-line. Regardless, you’d be ridiculous to say they couldn’t win it all.
3. Portugal – It’s still often debated what type of role Cristiano Ronaldo will play in this World Cup, but he’ll certainly be hungry to get his after Messi won in 2022. Outside of CR7, this current Portugal side is loaded with so much talent. Diogo Costa has looked insane recently, Neves and Vitinha are both putting themselves in best midfielder in the world conversations, and Nuno Mendes may very well be the best fullback in the world. Anything short of a win should be disappointing for this Portuguese side.
2. Spain – I almost did a cop-out and ranked the top two as 1a and 1b, but I think France is very narrowly better than Spain right now. Still, this Spanish team is incredible. At almost every position on the pitch, you can argue that they have the best player of that position in the world. Particularly, I think both Garcia and Raya at goalkeeper give Spain an edge that none of these other tier 1 nations have. There is an argument that Spain’s current core is so young that it will be detrimental to their 2026 World Cup, but I don’t think I buy into that idea.
1. France – I think France has the best attack in the world, and I actually don’t think it’s too close. A front three of Mbappé, Dembélé, and Olise is absolutely ridiculous. I also think they have the best CB in the world with Saliba. And with their weaker positions being filled by players like Kounde, they’re hardly lacking depth. This team has gelled in every tournament they’ve played. If you want to point to Spain besting them the last two times they’ve played, I wouldn’t blame you, but I still narrowly have France at my one.
Well, this took a long time to write. Anyways, I’m not God. I’m merely a North American who has mediocre ball knowledge. With that in mind, please don’t get mad at me if I ranked your country too low. Thanks for reading!
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