A new set of polls conducted by Poliwave.com indicate that Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party is expected to win all three seats during the set of federal by-elections to be held on August 31st. Of the contested races, this performance would result in the Liberals retaining two seats from the 2025 election, and picking up one seat from Pierre Poilievre‘s CPC.
Chicoutimi-Le Fjord Poll Results
| Party | Candidate | Percent Polled | Change from 2025 Election |
| Liberal Party | Daniel Gobeil | 39.9% | +8.7% |
| Bloc Québécois | Caroline Dubé | 35.1% | +3.9% |
| Conservative Party | Régis Gaudreault | 15.4% | -18.7% |
| New Democratic Party | Raphaël Émond | 6.1% | +4.2% |
| Green Party | Nathe Perrone | 3.1% | +2.2% |
A strongly francophone riding northeast of Quebec City, Chicoutimi-Le Fjord was represented by Conservative Richard Martel from 2018 until his resignation in July of this year. In 2025, Martel held the riding in a narrow 3-way race which saw the CPC, LPC, and BQ all finish between 31-34% of the popular vote.
In the new poll conducted by Poliwave (n=536, MoE +/- 4.7%), the data points to a Conservative collapse in this riding, with the pollster estimating that CPC candidate Régis Gaudreault will only receive ~15% of the vote. Expected to benefit from this collapse are LPC candidate Daniel Gobeil and Bloc candidate Caroline Dubé, who are expected to receive ~40% and ~35% of the vote, respectively.
Amongst decided voters, the Liberals have a larger lead over the Bloc, which may end up being the difference-maker come election day. Still, these numbers are close enough that this riding is effectively a coin toss.
North Vancouver—Capilano Poll Results
| Party | Candidate | Percent Polled | Change from 2025 Election |
| Liberal Party | Braeden Caley | 46.8% | -13.1% |
| Conservative Party | Stephen Curran | 30.3% | -3.4% |
| New Democratic Party | Stephen Tweedale | 11.9% | +7.7% |
| Green Party | Shelley Luce | 10.8% | +9.1% |
Despite Poliwave’s poll (n=528, MoE +/- 5.2%) projecting a 13 point drop-off from 2025 for the Liberal Party, they are still expected to safely win this by-election, as the riding has been safely Liberal since 2015. Interestingly, though, a result of 46.8% would be one of the LPC’s weaker performances in the past decade.
With both the NDP and GPC expected to rebound in this riding, North Vancouver-Capilano may be a Litmus test — if the two parties do well, there may be some legitimacy to Federal polls indicating that some pressure has been put on the LPC from the left.
As for the Conservative Party, while 30% would not be a disastrous collapse, it would be indicative of the polls correctly catching that the party is reverting back to its pre-2024 polling numbers.
Beaches-East York Poll Results
| Party | Candidate | Percent Polled | Change from 2025 Election |
| Liberal Party | Tanveer Shahnawaz | 55.0% | -12.6% |
| New Democratic Party | Shannon Devine | 20.7% | +13.8% |
| Conservative Party | Jim Syrbos | 20.6% | -3.1% |
| Green Party | Bruce Livesey | 2.6% | +1.3% |
| People’s Party | Michel Lachance | 1.2% | n/a |
Following Nate Erskine-Smith’s resignation from Parliament, this Toronto riding, which he has gradually turned into an LPC stronghold, will once again be tested. Poliwave’s polling data (n=538, MoE +/- 5.1%) indicates that the riding should remain safe for the Liberals.
Though Tanveer Shahnawaz is not expected to replicate NES’ historic 67.8% 2025 result, his projected 55% still matches the historic Liberal benchmark for the riding, and, if correct, would keep the riding as safely Liberal.
Perhaps the story to look for in this by-election will be the NDP’s performance. If the 20.7% figure from Poliwave reflects the election’s result, the NDP will have nearly matched the results they achieved in this riding in 2019 and 2021, which could be indicative of a rebound for the party in Ontario.
Though they were not expected to seriously contest the riding, a decrease in vote share for the CPC would be disastrous in the event where LPC vote in Beaches-East York drops by >10%.
Takeaways from Polling of the Upcoming Federal By-Elections
On the surface level, big drops in Vancouver and Toronto look bad for Carney’s Liberal Party, but this is partially to be expected for a party seeing the retirement of long-term incumbents. Overall, the Liberals should be ecstatic if these exact results occur — they will have held strong where they needed to, and leapt into picking up a seat that they just finished 3rd in.
If the Conservative Party collapses in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, it would be another huge blow to Pierre Poilievre’s fracturing coalition. Anything short of a very competitive second or third place finish should be seen as failure by the caucus. Additionally, losing vote share in the two other ridings would also be a missed opportunity to capitalize on Liberal losses.
If Poliwave’s polling numbers are accurate, the New Democratic Party will come out of the upcoming federal by-elections as the biggest winner. Though they are not expected to seriously contest any of these three seats, Poliwave does project the NDP to more than double their vote share in every riding. If this trend holds steady, the NDP would be likely to regain party status in the next federal election.
Overall, the upcoming federal by-elections look to be potentially consequential in a very transitional stage of Canadian electoral politics. As many online have noted, another CPC collapse may be the final nail in the coffin for Pierre Poilievre’s stint as party leader.
About the Pollster
Poliwave is a newer polling aggregate firm, having launched in 2025. In these polls, which were sponsored by the National Telegraph, Poliwave utilized fieldwork by Liason Strategies.
NCRnow.CA is not formally affiliated with Poliwave.com
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