Taymaz Valley, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons
On January 5th, 2025, the Conservative Party of Canada reached an all-time high on the polling aggregate site 338Canada.com at a remarkable 45% nationwide. Today, following polls from Nanos, Research Co., and Ekos which show the CPC polling at sub-30%, the same website has the party averaging 33% in the polls. The last time the CPC polled below 33% was in September of 2022.
In pro-Poilievre circles, this decline has often been attributed to the meteoric rise of Prime Minister Mark Carney from the moment that he took office. Indeed, Carney’s Liberal Party rapidly rebounded from 20% in January to 43% on election night. This 23% increase, though, cannot be explained by a collapse on the part of the Conservatives; in the same span, the CPC only dropped by 6 points. Rather, Carney’s LPC got most of their votes from those previously supporting the NDP, GPC, and Bloc.
For nearly an entire year after the election, the CPC stayed consistent, polling at a competitive 38-41% of the popular vote nationwide. With a decline starting this March, though, they have quickly plummeted in the polls. And similar to the initial rise of the Liberal Party, this is not chiefly due to a surge in LPC popularity. Rather, the Conservative drop has coincided with an equal increase amongst the Liberals, Greens, and New Democrats.
Understanding this, it is clear that there is a great failing on the part of the Conservatives in their attempt to appeal to Canadians. And to those with eyes, the perpetrator of this failing is clear: lifetime politician and perpetual loser Pierre Poilievre.
The Rhetorical Failure of Pierre Poilievre
Throughout the 45th Parliament to date, Poilievre has not managed to distinguish his Conservative Party from Carney’s austerity-centred LIberal Party in any meaningful way. Carney, who has successfully weaponized economic conservatism with social liberalism, is upholding a big tent coalition of Canadians who desire a return to “normalcy” after Prime Minister Trudeau’s tenure. In response to this, Poilievre has selected a set of culture-war issues to attack Carney on — none of which are anything beyond obvious distractions to most Canadians.
While Prime Minister Carney has positioned himself as the candidate to move Canada forward in a way that can appeal to progressives, moderates, and country club Conservatives alike, Poilievre has repeatedly sludged up tired issues ad nauseum (like Convoy issues or being tough with China).
In mid-2026, it is not enough for Poilievre to focus so heavily on fringe social issues. In a world where Carney is outflanking Poilievre to the right, it is not enough for Poilievre to spew slogans and attempt ‘gotcha moments’ like telling Carney that he’s stealing the CPC’s ideas.
Put bluntly, Pierre Poilievre is a lifetime politician who does not know how to appeal to your average Canadian. He was in Parliament at 25 (before he received his BA), and has spent nearly half of his life there now. He understands how the Canadian political system works, but he does not understand how Canadians work. This is why he’s retained undying faith from his caucus, but has lost droves of support from the base of his party.
During this downfall, everybody has feasted. Prime Minister Carney, in his austerity administration has rendered the CPC valueless for many. In adopting centre-right economics, he wins over moderates. In being the “voice of reason,” he makes leadership an issue of presentation: do Canadians want the charismatic banker, or the nasal-voiced career politician? Change is a hard sell when you’ve been in Parliament for longer than many young voters have been alive.
As for the New Democrats, who are showing signs of revitalization, they are doing it on the back of the Conservatives’ failure to appeal to the working person. To independent voters, the centrism of Carney’s administration has given much credibility to the idea of a uniparty; Poilievre’s inaction to differ has all but confirmed this idea.
Conclusion — What’s Next?
Poilievre failing to win his own seat of Carleton in 2025 should have been a sign. In an election where his party leapt by 7.5% in the popular vote, Poilievre lost over 6% from his 2021 result, finishing with a smaller percentage of the vote than all but one of the eight prior elections he contested in Carleton. In the eyes of many Canadians, this was a clear rejection of Skippy. In the eyes of the Conservative Party establishment, this result warranted near-unanimous in a leadership review as well as a free seat in the house courtesy of Damien Kurek.
If the Conservatives learn anything from the past few months of sliding, it should be that Poilievre has to go. For the party to rebound, they will need a leader who can appeal to any single voting bloc better than Carney currently can. The party’s at a crossroads, and Canadians have made one thing blatantly clear: Pierre Poilievre will never be the Prime Minister of Canada.
Stay Tuned for: Mark Carney and the Ideological Destruction of the Liberal Party of Canada
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